When Boise State fell 17-7 on the road on November 16, 2025, it wasn’t just a loss—it was the end of a dream. The Broncos, who had won back-to-back Mountain West Conference titles in 2023 and 2024, saw their chance at a third straight championship game vanish in a cold, gritty defeat that exposed deeper flaws in their offense and special teams. Now, with the regular season winding down, their postseason path has splintered into a dozen possibilities—each more geographically distant than the last.
From Boise to Boca Raton: A Bowl Map of Uncertainty
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, scheduled for December 22, 2025, at 2:00 p.m. EST at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, remains the most logical—and emotionally resonant—option. Playing at home, in front of fans who’ve watched them dominate the Mountain West for over a decade, would feel like a reward. But here’s the twist: even that isn’t guaranteed. ESPN’s Adam Bonagura projected Toledo versus UNLV for that slot, while Mark Schlabach sees Ohio taking on UNLV instead. Boise State doesn’t appear in either scenario.
So where does that leave them? Two destinations dominate the current projections: the Hawaii BowlHonolulu, and the Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium in Florida. Schlabach has Boise State facing Tulane in a mid-tier matchup, while Bonagura sees them squaring off against California. Both games would be played in late December, with Hawaii offering sun, sand, and a long flight, and Boca Raton delivering mild weather and a chance to play near the East Coast recruiting pipeline.
Why This Loss Changed Everything
Boise State entered Week 13 with a 7-4 record and a top-four spot in the Mountain West standings. A win would’ve put them in direct contention for the conference title game. Instead, their offense managed just 217 total yards and converted only 3 of 12 third downs. The defense, usually a rock, gave up 17 points to a team that had scored 14 or fewer in five of its previous six games. It wasn’t just the score—it was the how. A botched fake punt. A missed field goal. A fumble on the goal line. These weren’t flukes. They were patterns.
“This team looked like it had lost its identity,” said one anonymous assistant coach who spoke on condition of anonymity. “We used to be the team that made the big play when it mattered. Now, we’re the team that waits for the other guy to make a mistake.”
That shift in perception matters. Bowl selection committees don’t just look at win-loss records. They look at brand, TV appeal, and regional balance. Boise State, once a coveted matchup for mid-tier bowls, now risks being seen as a less attractive option. That’s why they’re suddenly competing with teams like Southern Miss and Arkansas State for the same slots.
The Ripple Effect Across the Mountain West
Boise State’s stumble didn’t just hurt them—it reshuffled the entire Mountain West bowl landscape. With the Broncos out of the title picture, San Diego State and Fresno State became the new frontrunners. That means fewer high-profile matchups for the conference’s remaining teams. The Hawaii Bowl, which traditionally takes the third-place Mountain West team, now might have to settle for a 6-6 squad instead of a 7-5 contender.
Meanwhile, the Boca Raton Bowl—a game that has selected Mountain West teams in six of the last eight years—could see its tie-in with the conference weakened if Boise State, its most consistent partner, ends up in a lower-tier slot. Analysts at MWC Connection noted that even if Boise State finishes 7-5, they may not be the highest-ranked eligible team due to strength-of-schedule metrics.
What’s Next? The Waiting Game Begins
Final bowl assignments won’t be announced until early December, after conference championship games are settled. The Mountain West Conference championship game is scheduled for December 7, 2025, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Whoever wins that game will lock up the conference’s automatic bid to a New Year’s Six bowl, leaving Boise State—and likely Fresno State—to fight for the next tier of slots.
Boise State’s remaining schedule includes a home game against New Mexico on November 23, followed by a road trip to Wyoming on November 30. A win in both would give them a 7-5 record and keep them in the conversation. But even then, they’re no longer the team people want to see—they’re the team people are trying to avoid.
Historical Context: When Boise State Was the Prize
Just five years ago, Boise State was a bowl game’s dream opponent. In 2020, they drew Oregon in the Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium—a marquee matchup that drew over 2 million viewers. In 2021, they faced Tulsa in the Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium and won in overtime, sending the program into the national spotlight.
But the landscape has changed. The Mountain West lost its automatic New Year’s Six access in 2023. Power Five schools now dominate the bowl calendar. Boise State, once the conference’s crown jewel, is now one of several mid-tier options.
It’s not the end of the world. But it’s the end of an era.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Boise State need to do to improve its bowl chances?
Boise State must win its final two games against New Mexico and Wyoming to finish 7-5. Even then, their bowl fate hinges on how other Mountain West teams perform, especially Fresno State and San Diego State. A 7-5 record doesn’t guarantee a top-tier bowl slot anymore—their strength of schedule (currently ranked 82nd nationally) and lack of quality wins hurt their appeal to selectors.
Why aren’t Boise State’s projections more consistent across analysts?
Because the Mountain West’s bowl tie-ins are flexible, and selection committees prioritize TV ratings, geography, and fan travel over pure win-loss records. Boise State’s recent decline makes them a lower-tier pick, so analysts are split on whether they’ll land in Hawaii (for travel appeal) or Boca Raton (for regional balance). No single formula fits anymore.
Has Boise State ever played in the Hawaii Bowl before?
Yes. Boise State last played in the Hawaii BowlHonolulu in 2021, defeating San Jose State 38-34 in a thrilling overtime game. That win capped a 10-3 season and was their last bowl victory before the current three-year slump.
What’s the likelihood Boise State plays at home in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl?
Slim. The Potato Bowl typically selects the highest-ranked Mountain West team not in the conference title game. With San Diego State and Fresno State ahead in the standings, Boise State would need both to lose and finish with worse records to have a shot. Even then, the bowl often favors teams with stronger fan bases or higher TV draw potential—neither of which Boise State currently has.
Who are the biggest winners from Boise State’s loss?
San Diego State and Fresno State are the clear beneficiaries. Both now control their own destiny for the Mountain West title game. Additionally, teams like UNLV and New Mexico could jump into better bowl slots as Boise State’s presence in the top tier fades. Even Utah State might benefit if the bowl pool becomes more crowded.
What does this mean for Boise State’s future recruiting?
It’s a setback. Top-tier recruits want to play in prominent bowl games and on national TV. Missing out on a New Year’s Six or even a marquee mid-tier bowl like Boca Raton could make it harder to attract elite in-state talent or transfer portal targets. Coaches are already feeling the pressure—this season’s recruiting class dropped 15 spots in the national rankings after the Week 13 loss.
